PTT全球化工(PTTGC)簡介﹕PTT Global Chemical(PTTGC)為泰國國營事業泰石油(PTT)旗下之公司，PTT 總共持
有 48.92%PTTGC 之股份。PTTGC 為 2011 年 10 月時由泰石油石化（PTTCH）和
泰芳香劑及煉油廠（PTTAR）合併而成之化學公司。
Looking at a poor 2Q19F Fri, Jul 19, 2019
report by SCBS
PTTGC has fallen 13% YTD – against a rise in the SET of 10% YTD - clear indication of market anxiety about its earnings in the face of poor product prices and spread from the global demand-supply balance arising out of the China-US trade dispute. We believe the poor 2Q19F is priced in and still BUY; it trades at an undemanding P/E of 7.4x for 2019F vs. 14x for regional peers and dividend yield of 6.8%. We expect GRM and earnings to improve in 2H19 on higher gasoil demand ahead of the IMO2020 rule on sulfur cap.
Core profit to be soft. We expect PTTGC’s 2Q19F net profit (released on August 8) to sink 51% QoQ to Bt3.1bn (Bt0.69/share) and 71% YoY on lower profit from the olefins segment, with adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 17% in 2Q19F from 18% in 1Q19. Another hit is the two-month closure of one of its Aromatics plants for maintenance and Bt800mn one-time extra provisions to comply with the amended Labor Protection Act. Core profit will slip less both YoY and QoQ.
Olefins: slight narrowing in EBITDA margin expected. HDPE price slid another 1.2% QoQ to a 5-year low of US$1,080/t in 2Q19, which we expect will narrow the EBITDA margin of this segment to 17% from 18% in 1Q19, far below the average of 26% for the last five years. Some help was given by a better gas/naphtha ratio of 89%/11% from 84%/16% in 1Q19 as gas supply from PTT returned to normal. The more gas feedstock it uses, the better the margin for olefins. A rise in olefins utilization rate to a record of 104% boosted economies of scale, combatting the weak product spread. Utilization of polymer plants grew slightly QoQ – evidence the trade dispute has had little effect on sales volume.
Aromatics: hurt by weaker spread QoQ and maintenance shutdown. We expect aromatics product-to-feed margin to fall 48% QoQ on narrower PXcondensate spread and 17% YoY. It was also affected by the 53-day planned turnaround of Aromatics Plant I that cut utilization rate to 75% from 94% in 1Q19.
Profit contributed by JVs. PTT Asahi (50% owned) will contribute more profit to PTTGC on a wider product spread of acrylonitrile (AN), up 49% QoQ to US$1,084/t vs. 3-year average of US$740/t due to supply disruption in the regional market. Profit share from HMC Polymers (41% owned) will be steady given the stable PPnaphtha spread. These two JVs contributed 40% of equity income in 1Q19.
2019F earnings estimate still has downside risk. Based on our estimate for 2Q19F, PTTGC’s 1H19F profit will account for only 26% of our full-year forecast, which makes reaching our forecast challenging. We do expect better GRM in 2H19, driven by middle distillate products (67% of production volume of refined oil products).
Looking at a poor 2Q19F Fri, Jul 19, 2019
report by SCBS
PTTGC has fallen 13% YTD – against a rise in the SET of 10% YTD - clear indication of market anxiety about its earnings in the face of poor product prices and spread from the global demand-supply balance arising out of the China-US trade dispute. We believe the poor 2Q19F is priced in and still BUY; it trades at an undemanding P/E of 7.4x for 2019F vs. 14x for regional peers and dividend yield of 6.8%. We expect GRM and earnings to improve in 2H19 on higher gasoil demand ahead of the IMO2020 rule on sulfur cap.
Core profit to be soft. We expect PTTGC’s 2Q19F net profit (released on August 8) to sink 51% QoQ to Bt3.1bn (Bt0.69/share) and 71% YoY on lower profit from the olefins segment, with adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 17% in 2Q19F from 18% in 1Q19. Another hit is the two-month closure of one of its Aromatics plants for maintenance and Bt800mn one-time extra provisions to comply with the amended Labor Protection Act. Core profit will slip less both YoY and QoQ.
Olefins: slight narrowing in EBITDA margin expected. HDPE price slid another 1.2% QoQ to a 5-year low of US$1,080/t in 2Q19, which we expect will narrow the EBITDA margin of this segment to 17% from 18% in 1Q19, far below the average of 26% for the last five years. Some help was given by a better gas/naphtha ratio of 89%/11% from 84%/16% in 1Q19 as gas supply from PTT returned to normal. The more gas feedstock it uses, the better the margin for olefins. A rise in olefins utilization rate to a record of 104% boosted economies of scale, combatting the weak product spread. Utilization of polymer plants grew slightly QoQ – evidence the trade dispute has had little effect on sales volume.
Aromatics: hurt by weaker spread QoQ and maintenance shutdown. We expect aromatics product-to-feed margin to fall 48% QoQ on narrower PXcondensate spread and 17% YoY. It was also affected by the 53-day planned turnaround of Aromatics Plant I that cut utilization rate to 75% from 94% in 1Q19.
Profit contributed by JVs. PTT Asahi (50% owned) will contribute more profit to PTTGC on a wider product spread of acrylonitrile (AN), up 49% QoQ to US$1,084/t vs. 3-year average of US$740/t due to supply disruption in the regional market. Profit share from HMC Polymers (41% owned) will be steady given the stable PPnaphtha spread. These two JVs contributed 40% of equity income in 1Q19.
2019F earnings estimate still has downside risk. Based on our estimate for 2Q19F, PTTGC’s 1H19F profit will account for only 26% of our full-year forecast, which makes reaching our forecast challenging. We do expect better GRM in 2H19, driven by middle distillate products (67% of production volume of refined oil products).
沒有留言:
張貼留言
感謝留言提出意見！